Port ValeHome
21:30Scheduled
RochdaleAway
Sportic Genie
Port Vale win
Port Vale is the pick.
Take Port Vale to win: three wins and two draws at home, against Rochdale’s one win, two draws and two losses away.
Port Vale’s 0.6 goals per game overall limits the case for a rout.
Home odds shortened from 1.62 to 1.61; away odds drifted from 4.50 to 4.75.
Port Vale vs Rochdale
Market signal
Implied vs actual win
Draw value +5.4pp
Port Vale winActual 58.5%
+2.5pp
DrawActual 30.4%
+5.4pp
Rochdale winActual 15.1%
-3.9pp
- Games at matching odds
- Port Vale65 gamesDraw270 gamesRochdale73 games
Odds Flow
- Port Vale1.57
- Rochdale5.25
- Draw3.80
| Time | Port Vale | Rochdale | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.31 13:21 | 1.57 | 5.25 ▴ | 3.80 |
| 10.30 22:10 | 1.57 ▾ | 5.00 | 3.90 |
| 10.30 08:49 | 1.61 | 5.00 ▴ | 3.80 |
Odds · Last 5 games
- Port ValeAvg 2.81· Win 40%
- RochdaleAvg 3.11· Win 20%
Team condition
Last 5 Games
Port Vale
Rochdale
40.0%
Win Ratehome advantage
20.0%0.6
Avg Scoredaway advantage
1.21.0
Avg Concededhome advantage
2.2-0.4
Avg Marginhome advantage
-1.0Home Team Analysis
Good3W60%
3W2D0L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.8
Avg ConcededStable
0.2
DateHomeScoreAwayResult
26.10.17
Port Vale
1-0
Chesterfield
W
26.10.10
Port Vale
1-0
Grimsby
W
26.09.12
Port Vale
1-0
Exeter
W
26.08.29
Port Vale
0-0
Crewe Alexandr…
D
26.08.22
Port Vale
1-1
Tranmere
D
Port Vale
Port Vale has three wins and two draws in its last five at home, scoring three first-half goals without conceding and allowing 0.2 per game. Its all-season home record is 15-9-3. But it scored just 0.6 per game overall in its last five and failed to score twice. Home solidity supports the win, not a rout.
Away Team Analysis
Poor20%
1W2D2L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.0
Avg ConcededAverage
1.2
DateHomeScoreAwayResult
26.10.17
Crewe Alexandr…
3-2
Rochdale
L
26.10.10
Tranmere
1-1
Rochdale
D
26.09.26
Fleetwood
1-2
Rochdale
W
26.09.12
Walsall
0-0
Rochdale
D
26.08.29
Colchester
1-0
Rochdale
L
Rochdale
Rochdale AFC’s last five away games brought one win, two draws and two losses. It scored twice and conceded four before the break, then scored three and conceded two after it. Its all-season away record is 1-2-3, with five goals for and nine against. The modest away margin masks its early defensive weakness.