Lincoln vs Birmingham

Millar Liam has three goals in his last three, with all 1.33 shots per game on target. Gray Demarai added two goals in 23 minutes per game over that span. For Lincoln, Coubis Andrei has a goal and an assist in his last three; Yunus Emre Konak and Bradley Sonny have neither. Birmingham’s forwards carry the finishing threat, while Coubis links Lincoln’s work.

Lincoln beat Burnley 4-1 with 21 shots, seven on target. Yet their last five home games brought 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game, with second-half goals at 4-7. They had 34.4% possession across their last five; their recent home record is one win, two draws and two losses.

Birmingham sit seventh with five wins, five draws and two losses from 12, but their last five away have brought three wins and two defeats, with no draws. Away they average 1.2 goals for and 1.0 against, below their season scoring rate of 1.82. At Cardiff they lost 0-1 with seven shots and 0.89 xG; their away first-half goals are 3-4.

Lincoln lost all three recent meetings, scoring two and conceding six. That pattern could persist against Lincoln’s 4-7 second-half home record and Birmingham’s 3-1 second-half away record. But Birmingham lost 0-1 at Cardiff last time, while Lincoln beat Burnley 4-1, so their latest results point in opposite directions.