Lille vs Lens

Lille scored 1.2 goals per game in its last 5 games, below its 1.38 this season, while Lens conceded 1.4 per game, below its 1.5 this season. Bakwa scored 0.5 goals per game in his last 2 games, above his 0.33 this season, but the defence he faces has also conceded fewer goals recently, narrowing the attacking edge. Lens scored 2.0 goals per game in its last 5 games, and Lille conceded 0.8 per game. Lille’s recent team scoring is subdued, but Bakwa’s higher recent goal rate gives its attack a lift.

Lille went 2W 1D 2L in its last 5 home games. It scored 6 goals in the first half and 2 in the second, with its goals concentrated before the break. It conceded 4 goals in each half, evenly across halves. But Lille conceded 1.6 goals per home game, higher than its 0.75 this season. Lille’s first-half scoring gives it an early threat, while the rise in home goals conceded weighs on its form.

Lens went 2W 1D 2L in its last 5 road games. It scored 6 goals in the second half and 3 in the first, so its goals clustered after the break. It conceded 5 goals in each half, evenly across halves. But Lens conceded 2.0 goals per road game, higher than its 1.5 this season. Lens carries a second-half scoring threat, though its rising away goals conceded undermines its road form.

Across the last 5 meetings in earlier seasons, Lille scored 1.6 goals per game and Lens scored 0.8. Lille also led the series with 4 wins and 1 loss in those 5 meetings. The meetings point toward Lille in this match.